This morning, Meet the Press announced new polling in battleground states that had McCain edging out Obama by 1 in Ohio.
McCain is up 47% to 41% in WV.
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New poll numbers on McCain and Obama in battleground states
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The whole concentration on battleground polling is complete circular logic. It doesn’t take hours mulling over and weighting polls from Nevada to come to this startling conclusion: If McCain catches up in the national polls, he will catch up in the battleground states. If Obama maintains a six point national lead, he’s going to win the vast majority of battleground states.
There was a reason why pre-2004 pollsters concentrated on national polling: because the national vote winner always becomes president! The only exception was in 2000 and that was because of a whopper of a non-stat related anomaly: Bush’s brother was the governor of Florida. No Jeb, no losing popular vote president since the 19th century. Otherwise, the national vote has been the perfect barometer to follow since the dawn of polling. All the rest is as valuable as gauging whether a baseball player is going to be an all-star based on how he hits on artificial turf during night games.
West Virginia should be pulling for Green Party since both major parties seem to think “clean coal” is a good idea. Pretty soon half of WV will be strip mined and the other half will be massive pools of coal sludge, one of the least known and least regulated toxic wastes. This is an obvious threat to the water supply. Fancy a cup of tea? Hey! Why is the water in my cup black when I haven’t even put the tea bag in yet?
Country first indeed.