There is a great article in Advertising Age, analyzing the impact of Michael Bloomberg on the Presidential race.  No doubt, his role will be substantial.  But, with Fred Thompson in this race, I believe that his role will more or less be “spoiler” for the Democrats than President.

From the get-go, let’s get this out of the way.  If he drops a billion into this race, he is a legitimate contender.  But, one thing Bloomberg lacks is a grassroots party structure that the major parties have.  It becomes difficult to build such grassroots support when he is not committed to any particular ideology.  You may be saying… well, what about Perot?

Yes, in 1992, Perot ended up with 18% of the popular vote.  However, his inability to build a strong grassroots network that reached into small towns throughout America (along with his overall insanity) was his undoing.

I do, however, believe that Bloomberg is a much stronger candidate than Perot.  And, if he blows a billion, he WILL win some states.  But, I truly believe that his candidacy will hurt Democrats more than Republicans… why?… you may ask.

Right now, Americans are (to put it mildly) disenchanted with the President.  And, no doubt, his absurdly low popularity will hurt Fred or any other Republican.  So, normally, people who wanted to vote the bums out would go to the Democrats.

But, let’s look at the other side… Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone really want to vote for her?  Barack?  Nice guy… no experience… too young…. and, that is about it for serious candidates (And, no, Edwards is not one.).  So, that leaves Bloomberg for Americans who are disenchanted with Bush.  And, of course, Fred will rally the Republican faithful.

Bloomberg in the race = a win for Fred and Republicans…. don’t you love how I am already giving this race to Fred and assuming he is the nominee?  Let’s be honest… who can hang with him in this race?

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There is an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal, today, discussing a potential Mayor Michael Bloomberg Independent candidacy for President. The article outlines how – since the primaries are early in this cycle for each party – a Bloomberg candidacy would make it difficult for the parties to recover. After all, they would be “stuck” with their nominee.

I admit that this is an interesting scenario, worth consideration. As I have discussed before how - right now - the Democrats are fairly satisfied with their slate of candidates. Meanwhile, the Republicans are not (without Fred Thompson in this race). So, I can actually see a scenario where Bloomberg could do very well if he steps in next summer (after people are REALLY dissatisfied) – without Fred Thompson in the race.

It would be funny to see Mayor of NYC against Mayor of NYC. I think that Bloomberg would be a very attractive candidate. He would take from both parties. However, I think that he would be the most damaging to Republicans. There is an element of the Republican party that is always fiscally conservative but resents the social conservatives who have taken over the party. No doubt, those folks would go with Bloomberg.

And, he might also be attractive to Democrats who feel that their party is a bit too left-leaning.

Bloomberg is not Perot. Unlike Perot, he is not crazy. He has a proven track record of success as Mayor of New York. He has been wildly successful in business and built up one of the biggest brands in the world. He has charisma. And, by virtue of being the Mayor of “the city”, he has people willing to throw money at him. But, fortunately, for him, he doesn’t need it. Bloomberg can bankroll this whole campaign by himself. Therefore, he can focus ALL of his energies on campaigning.

Do I believe that he can win? That remains to be seen. Would he be a formidable candidate? Definitely. More so than Perot? I think most definitely. He is an impressive politician. And, it remains to be seen if he is even interested. The smartest thing for him would be to just sit and wait. Wait for everyone to get tired of their candidates and step in to save the day. I admit that I like Bloomberg more than nearly anybody running, right now. And, I think a lot of other people would, too.

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