The word is out.  I received e-mails from the various campaigns, adding their spin.  But, in the Washington County straw poll, Van came in a distant third.  If you are Van, right about now, you have to be thinking, why are you in this race?  Or, maybe, he is not thinking that at all.  He lacks momentum.  And, if he truly cares (as he says he does) that Corker is not conservative enough, why would he not just bow out because his candidacy is only cutting into Ed’s numbers.  I happen to believe that if Van dropped out, Ed would win this race handily.  People who are committed to Van are not doing so because of his tremendous personality.  (I think we all know that.)

Clearly, the people who are committed to Van are committed to his conservative positions on issues.  Clearly, Ed has defined himself effectively as a conservative.  So, if Van were to drop out, I truly believe Ed would get the vast majority of those votes.  However, the tragedy is that . . . . his pride will not let him do it.  Come on, Van.  Take it for the team.

His lackluster showing in East Tennessee in 2002 shows his inability to connect in East Tennessee (specifically, Knoxville).  As a Republican, you ABSOLUTELY have to win East Tennessee.  And, if you can’t (against a Democrat from Massachusetts) you have no business in this race. 

There are 4 power centers in Tennessee:  (1) East, (2) Middle, (3) West, (4) Rural Counties.  As a Republican, you HAVE to win East.  When I talk about East, I am talking about Knoxville.  However, you can break even in Middle (Nashville).  But, it does help to have a slight edge.  And, then cover your butt in the West and try to have as strong of a showing as you can. 

 Let’s look at Van vs. Ed in these power centers.  First, both have strong conservative credentials.  These credentials give them an edge (at least philosophically in the East) which tends to be very conservative.  However, polls are showing that due to support from the Haslam family and other huge players, Corker has a foot-hold in Knoxville (regardless of the fact that he has been unable to establish himself as a conservative).  As a result, Bryant and Van aren’t getting the numbers you would expect.  And, because they are pulling from voters of the same philosophical view point, they are splitting what is left.

Then, you look at Middle (Nashville, generally) which is moderate . . . across the board.  Every time Van attacks Corker on his lack of a conservative stance on issues, Corker’s numbers go up (except in Williamson County).  Once again, Van and Ed are splitting similarly philosophically-position voters.

As far as West, Van has no connection to West and he is not in any way philosophically positioned with West Tennessee voters.  However, Ed is from there.  So, that places him at a slight advantage.

 Van’s only salvation is the rural counties.  However, past elections show that that is not enough to push you across the finish line.

My conclusion:  if Van truly cares about a conservative in this race (as he expresses that he does), he should get out.  From a philosophical perspective, the field is only so big.  And, if he stays, he is only hurting Ed’s chances of winning this race.  For the good of the party Van, bow out gracefully.  Live to fight another day – in another cycle.  A 3rd place finish here would effectively end your political career.